Insanely Great
The Tablet has arrived.
It is everything i want in a casual computing device.
It’s perfect for web browsing, watching videos, playing games, and reading.
It’s powerful enough to do your basic word processing & presentation stuff, too.
Coupled with the keyboard dock, I believe it is in fact good enough to be most people’s ONLY computer.
This is the next computer I want my mom, dad, and sister to own, because my “Tech Support” role will simply evapourate.
The Tablet is the first computer built for mere mortals.
Surprises from the event:
1) It is, unfortunately, called the “iPad”
2) I am dumbfounded that even though there is a mic, there is no front-facing webcam
3) They decided to use the open ePub book format instead of developing their own format. I’m happy I was wrong in this case. Openness is SO important for books.
4) No ability to annotate books. I’m upset about that.
5) No iPhone OS updates, which means no multi-tasking. 
6) There appears to be a 1 inch border all the way around the screen
7) The onscreen keyboard looks like the physical aluminum keyboards, and Steve typed on it using both hands at once.
Full iWork office suite for just $29.97 USD is amazing9) They totally stole Will Shipley’s bookcase interface for iBooks
I made a lot of Apple Tablet predictions.
So, how’d I do?
I made 64 predictions, and 32.5 of them were correct!
That’s 50.78% !
If the list of predictions had been pre-determined, and I just had to say “yes or no” that 50.78% would be pure luck. But that’s not how it was. I had no direction; an infinite array of possibilities. As such, 50.78% is amazing.
For the record, here’s a record of all my predictions, and how they actually turned out.
Legend:
R = right
W = wrong
H = half marks
U = unknown/not mentioned
Purpose: 8/8
R – New paradigm in computing. Redefines what a personal computer is.
R – Aimed primarily at regular people, not computer people
R – Designed to be a standalone primary computer
R – Also useful as a secondary computer
R – Great for reading books & magazines & websites
R – Great for watching videos, listening to music, and playing games
R – It will be the best & only device in its category
R – It will be more important to Apple than the iPhone, because it will capture an as yet untapped demographic: people who don’t necessarily like or use computers
Naming: 0/1
R – likely called “Canvas”, not iTablet/iSlate/iPad/Tablet/Tableau
Software: 8/26
R – customized version of the iPhone OS
R – on-screen keyboard, just like the iPhone
R – Tablet runs full iTunes natively, because the Tablet can be your only computer.
W – Multi-user support
W – Free MobileMe Lite accounts to host your user profile & basic data (bookmarks)
W – coverflow everywhere (finger friendly)
W – new file format for eBooks, like iTunes LP & Extras
W – use tablet as multi-touch or pen-based input for another Mac
W – run apps on your existing mac as if running on tablet (Unity-like abstraction)
W – run apps on your existing mac through remote desktop client
W – stream content from 1 Mac to another (i.e. from Mac to Tablet)
R – new app: iLibrary for organizing & creating books
R – new app: iPaint for drawing/painting directly ON the ‘canvas’
W – new system preference to always allow apps to know my location
W – multi-tasking by tapping into Apple’s existing background processes
OR by limiting # of apps allowed to run at once, and revealing them through
something like Expose, iPhone Safari’s browser pages, or desktop Safari’s favourite page thumbnails
W – iTunes goes back to being all about music. Sports new web-based frontend.
W – a new Store & syncing program is debuted, possibly called iGuide or Apple Media Store or simply “AppStore”
W – possible social networking features regarding books
W – Genius for Books
W – move away from Google Maps to Apple’s own solution
W – move away from Google Search to Bing Search
W – built-in Friend tracking (like Google Latitude & Loopt)
W – built-in navigation app with voice directions & controls
R – no Adobe Flash support
R – runs existing iPhone apps
R – SDK available immediately
Publishing: 1/2
H – Deals with all 6 major American publishers
W – Allow anyone to author & sell their own books
Hardware: 10/18
R – It will be flat. It won’t fold like other Tablet PCs
R – 2 models, consumer (wifi) & pro (wifi+3g)
R – 802.11n plus b/g
R – faster CPU than iPhone (1.2Ghz?)
R – faster graphics than iPhone (to drive larger display)
U – more RAM than iPhone (512MB)
R – 64GB of solid-state storage
W – OR 32 plus some cloud-based storage (on MobileMe)
W – either hybrid LCD/eInk OR 24 hours of eBook reading
W – gorgeous 10.1 inch full colour screen with higher-than-standard DPI
W – front facing webcam for video chat & multi-user facial recognition
W – plastic body with multi-touch on the back
W – available in the same colours as the current iPod Nano
W – Zero dock connectors, 1 USB port. Again, the Tablet can be your primary computer. You can sync your iPod with your Tablet. You will not sync the Tablet with your Mac.
R – no tactile/haptic keyboard
R – no integrated kickstand. too breakable.
R – no integrated home automation (too fringe)
R – comes with a very nice travel case, or one is available at launch
W – possibly launch a new Airport Express A/V
Sales: 2.5/5
R – much cheaper than the expected $1000
W – $699-$799 unsubsidized
H – $499 subsidized (by publishers or Apple itself)
W – AT&T exclusivity ends. Hello Verizon.
R – ships in March
Flip-Flops: 3/4
R – Initially said possible rebranding of MacBook. Later decided no.
R – Initially said both models include a stylus for optional pen-based input.
Later decided no (but it will be available as an option).
H – Initially said docking station available. Later said no. Really unsure.
H – Initially said keyboard supported. Later said no. Really unsure.
The Tablet has arrived.
It is everything i want in a casual computing device.
It’s perfect for web browsing, watching videos, playing games, and reading. It’s powerful enough to do your basic word processing & presentation stuff, too. Coupled with the keyboard dock, I believe it is in fact good enough to be most people’s ONLY computer. The Tablet is the first computer built for mere mortals.
It is definitely the next computer I want my mom, dad, and sister to own, because my “Tech Support” role will simply evapourate.
Surprises from the event:
- It is, unfortunately, called the “iPad”
- I was right about the $499 price, but wrong in that I said that would be a subsidized price.
- I was very surprised that Steve Jobs did not position this as the only computer most people need, but I still think that’s exactly what it is
- I am dumbfounded that even though there is a mic, there is no front-facing webcam
- They decided to use the open ePub book format instead of developing their own format. I’m happy I was wrong in this case. Openness is SO important for books.
- No ability to annotate books. I’m upset about that. I always write in the margins.
- No iPhone OS updates, which means no multi-tasking.
- There appears to be a 1 inch border all the way around the screen
- The onscreen keyboard looks like the physical aluminum keyboards, and Steve typed on it using both hands at once.
- Full iWork office suite for just $29.97 USD is an amazing deal
- They totally stole Will Shipley’s “Delicious Library” bookcase interface for iBooks
A few insights:
- A friend complained that because it doesn’t run OSX, he won’t be able to program on it. Don’t be so sure. You can easily use Mozilla Bespin, which is a cloud-based IDE that runs inside Safari.
- Another said “I don’t get why I would want a data plan for this. I don’t need one for my laptop. My home wi-fi works just fine.” — The answer is that the iPad can be your ONLY computer, and your ONLY internet connection. You don’t need a router/wi-fi if this is your only computer. The unlimited 3G will do just fine.
- There’s something else you won’t need soon, if you have an iPad, and that is a phoneline or cellular voice contract. The iPad is a Trojan Horse. It is the first device I know of that has a mic and a 3G connection built right in that does NOT also require you to have a voice plan. Apple is smart. They now have a contract with AT&T and other carriers that lets this sort of device onto their network. My guess is that the iPod Touch is also covered by this contract. I predict that very soon, Skype (or iChat) will be positioned as a replacement for a voice plan. I know some geeks are already doing this, but I think Apple will make it happen in a mainstream kind of way. AT&T won’t like it, but they’ve already signed the contract.
But enough of that…. I made 64 Apple Tablet predictions. How’d I do?
32 of them were correct!
That’s 50% !
If the list of predictions had been pre-determined, and I just had to say “yes or no” that 50% would be pure luck. But that’s not how it was. I had no direction; an infinite array of possibilities. As such, 50% is amazing.
For the record, here’s a record of all my predictions, and how they actually turned out.
Legend:
- R = right
- W = wrong
- H = half marks
- U = unknown/not mentioned
Purpose: 8/8
- R – New paradigm in computing. Redefines what a personal computer is.
- R – Aimed primarily at regular people, not computer people
- R – Designed to be a standalone primary computer
- R – Also useful as a secondary computer
- R – Great for reading books & magazines & websites
- R – Great for watching videos, listening to music, and playing games
- R – It will be the best & only device in its category
- R – It will be more important to Apple than the iPhone, because it will capture an as yet untapped demographic: people who don’t necessarily like or use computers
Naming: 0/1
- R – likely called “Canvas”, not iTablet/iSlate/iPad/Tablet/Tableau
Software: 8/26
- R – customized version of the iPhone OS
- R – on-screen keyboard, just like the iPhone
- R – Tablet runs full iTunes natively, because the Tablet can be your only computer.
- W – Multi-user support
- W – Free MobileMe Lite accounts to host your user profile & basic data (bookmarks)W – coverflow everywhere (finger friendly)W – new file format for eBooks, like iTunes LP & Extras
- W – use tablet as multi-touch or pen-based input for another Mac
- W – run apps on your existing mac as if running on tablet (Unity-like abstraction)
- W – run apps on your existing mac through remote desktop client
- W – stream content from 1 Mac to another (i.e. from Mac to Tablet)
- R – new app: iLibrary for organizing & creating books
- R – new app: iPaint for drawing/painting directly ON the ‘canvas’
- W – new system preference to always allow apps to know my location
- W – multi-tasking by tapping into Apple’s existing background processes OR by limiting # of apps allowed to run at once, and revealing them through something like Expose, iPhone Safari’s browser pages, or desktop Safari’s favourite page thumbnails
- W – iTunes goes back to being all about music. Sports new web-based frontend.
- W – a new Store & syncing program is debuted, possibly called iGuide or Apple Media Store or simply “AppStore”
- W – possible social networking features regarding books
- W – Genius for Books
- W – move away from Google Maps to Apple’s own solution
- W – move away from Google Search to Bing Search
- W – built-in Friend tracking (like Google Latitude & Loopt)
- W – built-in navigation app with voice directions & controls
- R – no Adobe Flash support
- R – runs existing iPhone apps
- R – SDK available immediately
Publishing: 0.5/2
- H – Deals with all 6 major American publishers
- W – Allow anyone to author & sell their own books
Hardware: 10/18
- R – It will be flat. It won’t fold like other Tablet PCs
- R – 2 models, consumer (wifi) & pro (wifi+3g)
- R – 802.11n plus b/g
- R – faster CPU than iPhone (1.2Ghz?)
- R – faster graphics than iPhone (to drive larger display)
- U – more RAM than iPhone (512MB)
- R – 64GB of solid-state storage
- W – OR 32 plus some cloud-based storage (on MobileMe)
- W – either hybrid LCD/eInk OR 24 hours of eBook reading
- W – gorgeous 10.1 inch full colour screen with higher-than-standard DPI
- W – front facing webcam for video chat & multi-user facial recognition
- W – plastic body with multi-touch on the back
- W – available in the same colours as the current iPod Nano
- W – Zero dock connectors, 1 USB port. Again, the Tablet can be your primary computer. You can sync your iPod with your Tablet. You will not sync the Tablet with your Mac.
- R – no tactile/haptic keyboard
- R – no integrated kickstand. too breakable.
- R – no integrated home automation (too fringe)
- R – comes with a very nice travel case, or one is available at launch
- W – possibly launch a new Airport Express A/V
Sales: 2.5/5
- R – much cheaper than the expected $1000
- W – $699-$799 unsubsidized
- H – $499 subsidized (by publishers or Apple itself)
- W – AT&T exclusivity ends. Hello Verizon.
- R – ships in March
Flip-Flops: 3/4
- R – Initially said possible rebranding of MacBook. Later decided no.
- R – Initially said both models include a stylus for optional pen-based input.
- Later decided no (but it will be available as an option).
- H – Initially said docking station available. Later said no. Really unsure.
- H – Initially said keyboard supported. Later said no. Really unsure.
I also think it’s great. I’m super surprised at how cheap it is. And I agree with your consensus about it being the only computer for someone, and their only internet connection. I think it’s feasible.
In terms of it being one’s only computer.. I think it’s doable, and I think the situation will improve as they move iTunes more into the cloud..
Insanely great? No, I would not say that. In fact, I was expecting better. It’s a nice device though, don’t get me wrong. It’s a simple computer that is not a computer.
But my mom is not a computer expert at all but I don’t see her replacing her computer with an iPad (yet?). I know she likes some multitasking and she needs a camera (although I am sure that will come in the future).
Of course I wouldn’t mind having one but I don’t really need one. I doesn’t add enough to my daily routine also because I am not an e-book reader.
But it has potential and since it is a apple log on it, it has the potential to be a success.
That will do nicely. Nothing on Apple UK website yet so have no idea of availability in UK yet.
double yet above,my English teacher would shoot me.
Very interesting Apple made its own chip for the iPad,could this be significant for the future.
Yes, Apple purchased a chip design company a little while ago, called PA-Semi. They also purchased a mapping company called PlaceBase, which I think will eventually replace Google Maps on the iPhone & iPad.
Great review; I agree that it could easily be your only computer, or at least your only “laptop.” Apple’s biggest error in this was making it too good. With the tablet in the netbook price range and with it a lot sexier than a MacBook, that $1100-$2000+ MacBook price is looking a lot like an Eagles concert — an overpriced dinosaur.
Furthermore, all this crap about the tablet being four iPhones duct-taped together misses the point. The game changed and an iPod Touch is now a quarter-tablet; an iPhone is a $2500 quarter tablet, given the contract.
The tablet is definitely Apple’s fourth “it” device, after the Mac in ’84, the iMac in 1999 or so and the iPod shortly after. But instead of standing alone or adding value to the rest of the lineup, I think it’s going to cannibalize — or net-bookize — both Apple’s laptop line and its mobile-device line. I mean, unless the tablet’s external keyboard is $1100, there absolutely no reason to buy an Air.
What will be left is the $2000+ pro and the tablet.
(I’d love to see an iPad Nano next Christmas; just a Touch but $400).
I find strange that you actually think bespin is a workable alternative to a real development environment. If you were told today that you had to use it instead of Zend would you be happy?
I’m also surprised that you don’t seem to have even the tiniest bit of moral outrage toward the fact that apple’s potentially coolest new piece of hardware goes entirely against open computing. It was fine (not great) when it was just a phone but this is a computer.
Somehow this idea that it’s more ‘accessible to the masses’ stacks up at greater value for you and taking a giant leap backwards in openness worth it to you?
Don’t get me wrong this thing looks like an awesome toy… I’d love to play with it. But the idea that this represents the future of computing for the masses, as Apple and you seem to be suggesting, scares the shit out of me.
Regarding Bespin versus Zend, no I would not be happy. I don’t mean to say that Bespin is in any way equivalent to Zend. I’m just using it to point out that coding on an iPad isn’t impossible. In fact, I’m sure it’s only a matter of time until someone releases a $9.99 PHP editor on the AppStore. My guess is that it’ll be by Aptana, who already have their own cloud service.
As for the Apple stuff, I can’t explain myself any better than Stephen Fry explained himself: “I do like and have tried to champion OpenSource software. How can I square that with my love of Apple? I’m complicated. I’m a human being. I also believe in a mixed economy and mixed nuts. I love our National Health Service and the National Theatre, but I also love Fortnum and Mason’s and Hollywood movies.”
I know intuitively that Openness must and will succeed, but at the same time I have an increasingly low tolerance for stuff that isn’t superbly designed. I don’t ever want to have to tweak/configure/fix things. They should just work. Apple’s products, by and large, do just that.
Ubuntu has made great strides in the last few years, but I won’t be going back to a fully open ecosystem until it approaches the simplicity & design I can get from Apple.
Fry’s excellent article – http://www.stephenfry.com/2010/01/28/ipad-about/
@DennisJordan
>>all this crap about the tablet being four iPhones duct-taped together misses the point. The game changed and an iPod Touch is now a quarter-tablet
I agree 100% !
>>The tablet is definitely Apple’s fourth “it” device, after the Mac in ’84, the iMac in 1999 or so and the iPod shortly after.
Even though the iPhone is really a mini-iPad, I still think the iPhone was the 4th.
Mobile internet was SUPERSHIT before it came out. Have you ever tried to browse a WAP/WEP website? Eeeek!
Data was 10x more expensive.
Multi-touch didn’t exist.
Mobile games were limited to Nintendo DS & PSP.
>>Apple’s biggest error in this was making it too good. . . sexier than a MacBook . . . overpriced dinosaur. Instead of standing alone or adding value to the rest of the lineup, I think it’s going to cannibalize
I thought that, too.
Then I saw this quote:
“If anyone is going to cannibalize the sale of our products it might as well be us.” – Steve Jobs
He’s got all the angles covered
>> What will be left is the $2000+ pro and the tablet.
techies will continue to buy their desktops & laptops, because they need access to more hardcore stuff
but what’s going to happen is that everyone else will buy ipads
i don’t mean “everyone who would otherwise have bought a laptop or desktop”
i mean something closer to “everyone who is alive and wants to be online”
there are SO MANY people who don’t have computers because computers make them feel stupid or dumb, or because they think they won’t be able to figure them out.
apple is going to sell an ipad to 50% of those people
then those people will each convince 1 friend to get one, because it’s so easy to use
word of mouth rules
apple stores will help a lot too, because they’re a no-pressure place where people can hold them, and try them out, and ask all sorts of questions.
most of your “R” predictions are general in nature and applicable to almost any new “tablet” gadget (i.e., Dell, HP and others will be release one of their own this year).
>Coupled with the keyboard dock, I believe it is in fact good enough to be most >people’s ONLY computer.
no it’s not. web experience is not complete w/o Flash. no USB = no connectivity to printer, USB drive, etc. no webcam = inability to video conference.
yes, it’s fast, slim, beautiful but… useless as the “only computer”. I will wait for the second generation of the iPad or get one from another manufacturer that will include the aforesaid necessities.
Apple can’t be “excused” by taking so much time, bulding up so much hype/expection, and then releasing a barely useful device.
My “predictions” seem general now that it has been launched. Yes, “tablets” have been available by Dell, HP, and others for years, but they all sucked ass! They never took off.
I use my iPhone for a LOT of web browsing, and 99% of the time I don’t miss Flash. USB is also not required – you can do a lot via WiFi these days. Many printers support WiFi printing. In an interview, Steve Jobs said the iPad will support printing at launch.
Lack of web cam is not a huge deal (though I agree it is annoying). The amount of people who think video conferencing is cool is very high, but the amount of people who actually DO video conferencing is very low. Not a deal breaker, just a nice to have.
It may be useless as YOUR only computer, but most people don’t require all the features you would use. They’re not “necessities”. Just useful-for-geeks.
I am talking about tablets that were announced at CES, which took place before your predictions.
I’ve been using iPhone since the first generation, most of my daily web browsing is done on the deive and one thing I greatly miss is Flash.
This device is for non-geeks; basically, those people who will use it on their couch, browse non-CSS compliant web sites (most likely with Flash) and chat with their relatives/grandchildren (most likely with video). I would have purchased it for my dad who hates his PC, and all he does is exactly that: browse the web and videoconference with me and other folks. It’s a deal breaker, and I am pretty sure it’s a deal breaker for many. One reassuring thing is that some leaked photos of the iPad taken apart show an empty space for camera (http://www.macrumors.com/2010/02/01/ipad-enclosure-has-empty-space-for-camera/)
USB? Essential. If we’re talking about the “only” computer, then who wouldn’t want to take photos with their pocket camera, take the memory card out, stick in a reader and show to friends?
In any case, I will wait for the second generation. Hopefully iPad will face some competition from the planned releases by HP, DELL, et al. It will give Apple a good reason to include some of the obvious features the current generation is lacking.
Let’s see what happens with iPhone this coming summer. Google’s Nexus One is a worthy competitor, so Mr. Jobs can no longer sit back and relax.
I didn’t pay much attention to CES, so my predictions aren’t from there. The tablets I did see from CES, though, were just small computers running Windows 7. None of them were optimized for the tablet form factor.
I have no idea what you’re talking about when you said “non-CSS compliant”. I’ve never had a problem with Mobile Safari rendering anything… except Flash.
As for the whole USB thing, Apple actually released USB and SD-Card attachments for the iPad. They’re kind of hokey, but at least they let you use USB & SD. See’em here: http://www.aworldofchange.info/2010/01/27/apple-ipads-myriad-optional-dongles-usb-sd-ac-bbq-apple/
It’s only a matter of time until Belkin or someone releases a full-featured dock that includes a USB hub, nice external speakers, keyboard, a top-mounted webcam, and some kind of harddrive that backs up the iPad automatically. It won’t be too expensive, and it’ll be well worth it.
I think I’ll get a first generation iPad (16 gig, wifi only) just to see if I like it. If I do,I’ll sell it as soon as the 2nd generation is announced, and order myself a top-of-the-line iPad 2.0 with max storage, 3G, and whatever else it includes.
Dongles, docks… I would rather sacrifice slightly thickness than having to pay extra for cable attachments.
A number of tiny tablets were showcased at CES. Lots will hit the market. Starting from 5″ devices (http://www.slipperybrick.com/2010/01/dell-unveils-mini-5-tablet-prototype/).
I am tempted to get the iPad but won’t be lining up to buy it.
I’m not a fan of dongles either, but I wouldn’t mind if it required a dock to connect to other devices.
I’m pretty “meh” about the CES tablets. Everyone and their brother is releasing Android devices. Some of the hardware is great, and the OS is great, but NOBODY is taking the time and spending the money to make a suite of custom-designed apps for their Android-based devices. Without that, it won’t be a slick, custom experience, optimized for the tablet form-factor. Without that, the iPad will continue to kick their asses for a long time to come.
The original iPod beat every other MP3 player in exactly the same way: it came with iTunes. Apple wins because it builds & optimizes both the hardware and the software, so they work together perfectly.
Yes, there were geeks who insisted their Creative MP3 Player was better, because it had an FM tuner, but eventually they realized how inferior “Creative Jukebox” was to iTunes, and they switched. Today, some people use Songbird to manage their music, but this is 10 years later! It has taken SO long for the rest of their industry to get their shit together and design a single elegant competitor. Insanity.
>Yes, there were geeks who insisted their Creative MP3 Player was better,
>because it had an FM tuner, but eventually they realized how inferior “Creative
>Jukebox” was to iTunes, and they switched.
I had a Creative MP3 player. Still have it. It has superior sounding qualities, files could be dragged and dropped, FM tuner, etc. I don’t use it not because of shitty “Creative Jukebox” (I never even tried it). I use iPhone because I want all-in-one. The only time I use iTunes is to sync apps and contacts. Music and videos are synced with a third-party application, which is much more flexible and I can simply drag and drop files.
>NOBODY is taking the time and spending the money to make a suite of custom-
>designed apps for their Android-based devices.
Google does. Nexus works great, so does Droid. I am pretty sure that tablets that will be released will provide a decent user experience. While Apple definitely rocks at doing that, they compromise on some essential features. I am waiting for a no-compromise tool. Give me 8 hours of playback but include a camera. Charge a bit more but if you’re including 3G, don’t introduce mini-SIM cards and don’t lock it to data only. Etc. It’ll be great to see what the modding community does with this toy. Maybe when in London, ON, I’ll drop by check out your new iPad.
P.S. Here’s something new from Google: http://dev.chromium.org/chromium-os/user-experience/form-factors/tablet