Apple Predictions for 2010-2014
Steve Jobs
People always make predictions right before an Apple event, when the rumour mill is all abuzz, and leaks are coming out left & right. I decided it was high time someone made some predictions well in advance. Like, years in advance. While most of my predictions are evolutionary, a few will be revolutionary/huge/unbelievable. Here they are:
- Like the iPhone & iPad, MacBooks will support SIM-cards for on-the-go surfing. Apple's cost on SIM-card hardware is dirt cheap now.
- When carrier-exclusivity with AT&T ends, Apple will enable MiFi base-station functionality on all hardware capable of receiving data via cellular networks. The best consumer experience means not paying for more than one cellular data plan, and not needing another gadget (MiFi) just to share a connection.
- When carrier-exclusivity with AT&T ends, Apple will allow any app that can run well over 3G to do so.
- The Apple Keyboard will get backlighting similar to that found in the MacBook Pro.
- The Apple Keyboard will lose its numeric keypad, just like the Apple Wireless Keyboard.
- The Apple Keyboard will have 2 optional magnetically attachable modules: numeric keypad & magic trackpad. They attach to either the left or right of the keyboard, or both can attach to the right, linked to one another. They are powered by the keyboard. The numeric keypad module will also work with MacBooks.
- All Apple displays will be retina displays (iPad, iPod, MacBook & Cinema Display).
- GPS will come to the Mac & iMac. Location is important, even when you're stationary.
- All Macs support multiple-user accounts. Soon, iDevices will too. This will help when deploying to schools, small businesses, and in families that can't afford multiple devices.
- FaceTime will come to the iPod & Mac, and phone <-> computer calling will be 'normal'. The concept of a 'phone' will fade away. The iPhone was a trojan horse which let Apple get its tech onto carriers networks, but it is not the endgame. Non-phones on their networks is the endgame (i.e. iPod Touch with mic, iPad with mic, MacBook with mic).
- All Macs & iDevices will have iSight built-in, with a front-facing LED light for when lighting sucks. This will help FaceTime look good AllTheTime.
- All Macs & iDevices will ship with a noise-cancelling microphone, to ensure crystal clear calls.
- The iPhone4 & all recent Macs have OpenCL-capabilities, which is designed to help them process data MUCH faster, especially visual data such as 3D. Apple will start using it, probably with some innovative 3D or augmented reality interface (I've yet to see one that wasn't lame, but if anyone can pull it off, it's Apple). It will also be brought to the iPod & iPad.
- All iDevices & MacBooks (portables) will gain the iPhone4's six-axis sensors
- Apple will release a new input device, similar to the Wiimote/PSMove/Kinect, optimized for interacting with 3D & augmented reality interfaces. We may also be able to use our iDevices as input devices for our Macs.
- All iDevice & Mac displays will gain pressure sensitivity, again, facilitating depth interaction, but also catering to artists -- Apple's longtime base.
- All iDevice & Mac displays will gain haptic feedback. You feel what you touch. It touches you back (in a good way).
- All iDevices & Macs support bluetooth & Wi-Fi. Based on patent filings, Apple may be designing an immersive glasses-based display & earphones that connect wirelessly to your existing device, which it will rely on for sensing & processing. This could be the key to a 3D or augmented reality interface that isn't lame, and it's why propagating iPhone4's gyroscopic sensor to other devices is key.
- Syncing will be moved out of iTunes and into its own application.
- Huge updates to how file syncing works. iDisk will be re-engineered to be more 'dropbox-like'.
- Over-the-air sync will happen sooner than later
- Some things will begin to be streamed on-demand, instead of sync'd ahead of time (Apple is building a huuuge data centre to facilitate this). This will help reduce the storage requirements of its portable devices.
iLife & iTunes: Boom!
- iTunes goes back to being all about audio.
- iVideos is the new home of all your videos (iLife now consists of: iTunes, iVideos, iBooks)
- iLife apps are about consumption, not production. For this reason iMovie will be merged into Final Cut, which will have 2 operating modes: beginner & pro. Alternately, Apple could bundle iMovie as part of iWork, which is also about creating things. This would have the additional benefit of bringing more users to the iWork suite.
- Just as iDevices are touch-optimized & Macs are mouse-optimized, AppleTV's final incarnation will be optimized for remote control by an iDevice running touch-based apps from the AppStore. The apps control what the TV displays, completely replacing Cable Channels & TV Guide. The remote device will have very limited storage, no cameras, no extra sensors, and no mic. It will be very basic, and will come bundled with the AppleTV. Also available separately for about less than $100. (I wrote this yesterday, before the rumour of an app-capable AppleTV surfaced, but didn't publish until today, because Google had flagged my site as containing malware, and that took a little while to resolve).)
If you have any more predictions, I'd love to hear them. Please post'em in the comments.
insanely great
Full iWork office suite for just $29.97 USD is amazing
The Tablet has arrived.
It is everything i want in a casual computing device.
It's perfect for web browsing, watching videos, playing games, and reading. It's powerful enough to do your basic word processing & presentation stuff, too. Coupled with the keyboard dock, I believe it is in fact good enough to be most people's ONLY computer. The Tablet is the first computer built for mere mortals.
It is definitely the next computer I want my mom, dad, and sister to own, because my "Tech Support" role will simply evapourate.
Surprises from the event:
- It is, unfortunately, called the "iPad"
- I was right about the $499 price, but wrong in that I said that would be a subsidized price.
- I was very surprised that Steve Jobs did not position this as the only computer most people need, but I still think that's exactly what it is
- I am dumbfounded that even though there is a mic, there is no front-facing webcam
- They decided to use the open ePub book format instead of developing their own format. I'm happy I was wrong in this case. Openness is SO important for books.
- No ability to annotate books. I'm upset about that. I always write in the margins.
- No iPhone OS updates, which means no multi-tasking.
- There appears to be a 1 inch border all the way around the screen
- The onscreen keyboard looks like the physical aluminum keyboards, and Steve typed on it using both hands at once.
- Full iWork office suite for just $29.97 USD is an amazing deal
- They totally stole Will Shipley's "Delicious Library" bookcase interface for iBooks
A few insights:
- A friend complained that because it doesn't run OSX, he won't be able to program on it. Don't be so sure. You can easily use Mozilla Bespin, which is a cloud-based IDE that runs inside Safari.
- Another said "I don't get why I would want a data plan for this. I don't need one for my laptop. My home wi-fi works just fine." -- The answer is that the iPad can be your ONLY computer, and your ONLY internet connection. You don't need a router/wi-fi if this is your only computer. The unlimited 3G will do just fine.
- There's something else you won't need soon, if you have an iPad, and that is a phoneline or cellular voice contract. The iPad is a Trojan Horse. It is the first device I know of that has a mic and a 3G connection built right in that does NOT also require you to have a voice plan. Apple is smart. They now have a contract with AT&T and other carriers that lets this sort of device onto their network. My guess is that the iPod Touch is also covered by this contract. I predict that very soon, Skype (or iChat) will be positioned as a replacement for a voice plan. I know some geeks are already doing this, but I think Apple will make it happen in a mainstream kind of way. AT&T won't like it, but they've already signed the contract.
But enough of that.... I made 64 Apple Tablet predictions. How'd I do?
32 of them were correct!
That's 50% !
If the list of predictions had been pre-determined, and I just had to say "yes or no" that 50% would be pure luck. But that's not how it was. I had no direction; an infinite array of possibilities. As such, 50% is amazing.
For the record, here's a record of all my predictions, and how they actually turned out.
Legend:
- R = right
- W = wrong
- H = half marks
- U = unknown/not mentioned
Purpose: 8/8
- R - New paradigm in computing. Redefines what a personal computer is.
- R - Aimed primarily at regular people, not computer people
- R - Designed to be a standalone primary computer
- R - Also useful as a secondary computer
- R - Great for reading books & magazines & websites
- R - Great for watching videos, listening to music, and playing games
- R - It will be the best & only device in its category
- R - It will be more important to Apple than the iPhone, because it will capture an as yet untapped demographic: people who don't necessarily like or use computers
Naming: 0/1
- R - likely called "Canvas", not iTablet/iSlate/iPad/Tablet/Tableau
Software: 8/26
- R - customized version of the iPhone OS
- R - on-screen keyboard, just like the iPhone
- R - Tablet runs full iTunes natively, because the Tablet can be your only computer.
- W - Multi-user support
- W - Free MobileMe Lite accounts to host your user profile & basic data (bookmarks)W - coverflow everywhere (finger friendly)W - new file format for eBooks, like iTunes LP & Extras
- W - use tablet as multi-touch or pen-based input for another Mac
- W - run apps on your existing mac as if running on tablet (Unity-like abstraction)
- W - run apps on your existing mac through remote desktop client
- W - stream content from 1 Mac to another (i.e. from Mac to Tablet)
- R - new app: iLibrary for organizing & creating books
- R - new app: iPaint for drawing/painting directly ON the 'canvas'
- W - new system preference to always allow apps to know my location
- W - multi-tasking by tapping into Apple's existing background processes OR by limiting # of apps allowed to run at once, and revealing them through something like Expose, iPhone Safari's browser pages, or desktop Safari's favourite page thumbnails
- W - iTunes goes back to being all about music. Sports new web-based frontend.
- W - a new Store & syncing program is debuted, possibly called iGuide or Apple Media Store or simply "AppStore"
- W - possible social networking features regarding books
- W - Genius for Books
- W - move away from Google Maps to Apple's own solution
- W - move away from Google Search to Bing Search
- W - built-in Friend tracking (like Google Latitude & Loopt)
- W - built-in navigation app with voice directions & controls
- R - no Adobe Flash support
- R - runs existing iPhone apps
- R - SDK available immediately
Publishing: 0.5/2
- H - Deals with all 6 major American publishers
- W - Allow anyone to author & sell their own books
Hardware: 10/18
- R - It will be flat. It won't fold like other Tablet PCs
- R - 2 models, consumer (wifi) & pro (wifi+3g)
- R - 802.11n plus b/g
- R - faster CPU than iPhone (1.2Ghz?)
- R - faster graphics than iPhone (to drive larger display)
- U - more RAM than iPhone (512MB)
- R - 64GB of solid-state storage
- W - OR 32 plus some cloud-based storage (on MobileMe)
- W - either hybrid LCD/eInk OR 24 hours of eBook reading
- W - gorgeous 10.1 inch full colour screen with higher-than-standard DPI
- W - front facing webcam for video chat & multi-user facial recognition
- W - plastic body with multi-touch on the back
- W - available in the same colours as the current iPod Nano
- W - Zero dock connectors, 1 USB port. Again, the Tablet can be your primary computer. You can sync your iPod with your Tablet. You will not sync the Tablet with your Mac.
- R - no tactile/haptic keyboard
- R - no integrated kickstand. too breakable.
- R - no integrated home automation (too fringe)
- R - comes with a very nice travel case, or one is available at launch
- W - possibly launch a new Airport Express A/V
Sales: 2.5/5
- R - much cheaper than the expected $1000
- W - $699-$799 unsubsidized
- H - $499 subsidized (by publishers or Apple itself)
- W - AT&T exclusivity ends. Hello Verizon.
- R - ships in March
Flip-Flops: 3/4
- R - Initially said possible rebranding of MacBook. Later decided no.
- R - Initially said both models include a stylus for optional pen-based input.
- Later decided no (but it will be available as an option).
- H - Initially said docking station available. Later said no. Really unsure.
- H - Initially said keyboard supported. Later said no. Really unsure.
Apple Tablet Event Invitation Insights
Apple Tablet Invite
Apple has now sent out its official invitations to the January 27th event.
Facts:
- The invites are spray-paint themed.
- The caption reads "come see our latest creation".
- The event is scheduled to be 2 hours long.
Insights:
- "Our latest creation" seems to focus on a single product.
- Steve Jobs can cover a LOT of ground in 2 hours, so expect something huge - a whole new Operating System or interaction paradigm.
- The colour goes "outside the lines" of the border, like "thinking outside the box". Makes me think new paradigm.
- The colours of paint are the same as the iPod Nano. Will the tablet be available in these same colours? This would appeal to artsy people, and those who wish the Kindle were a bit more stylish.
- Spray paint at all suggests art / creativity, as does the word "creation" on the invite.
- Spray paint could indicate the presence of a stylus (i.e. not finger painting)
- Drips of paint could indicate that the tablet can be used in a vertical or tilted orientation, like a canvas
- Drips of paint could indicate a kind of gravity/physics/liquid model, like paint dripping on a canvas sitting on a tilted easel
- Use of paint could indicate a new drawing/painting app.
Apple has long catered to "creative people", but has so far ignored that particular demographic. I think they avoided it because to get it right, you need to be able to work directly ON the canvas, not on something that represents the canvas (i.e. mousepad/trackpad). This would be "pen-on-screen" technology, similar to what's used in the Wacom Cintiq. The Apple Tablet will be Cintiq for Everyone, plus a web tablet, plus document editor, plus eBook. As I mentioned in my other tablet predictions post, I think use of a stylus will be optional, but particularly useful for art and annotation. - The paint app could debut as part of a new version of iLife, or as a free (killer) app that comes with every Tablet
- This device/app will be to artists as Final Cut Pro is to video editors
- The new device could be called, the "Apple Canvas", or "Apple Tableau" (french for Dramatic Scene - bonus for being hoity toity, plus people will call'em Ta-blows if they suck). It's now obvious that my "MacBook" re-branding idea was totally wrong, since Apple is clearly focusing on Art, with eBook reading as a bonus, not eBooks with Art as a bonus.
In other words, I think this Tablet is going to be just as important to Apple as the iPhone has been. It is going to take them into new markets, and it will be the best (or only) device in the category.
I'll be watching Leo Laporte's live coverage over at http://live.twit.tv, and I bet he maxes out his bandwidth pretty quickly.
My Apple Tablet Predictions
Apple Tablet Mockup from Gawker.com
- The Tablet could assume the name MacBook. Re-brand existing laptops. This avoids consumer confusion from having a product called "MacBook" that is not book-related, and having another product that is book related, but does not have "book" in the product name.
- Coverflow will be everywhere. It's very finger-friendly
- Either a hybrid LCD/eInk display OR 24 hrs of eBook reading ability. eInk is cool because of its battery life & great contrast/sharpness. If Apple can achieve this without using an eInk screen, they will (e.g. Pixel Qi's dual mode screen)
- Higher-than-standard screen DPI to help reduce eye strain from reading
- Front facing camera & decent speakers, because for teens all media is social
- New iTunes format for eBooks (like LPs), uses iTunes DRM (5 machines)
- As with most other Apple products, it will come in 2 models: Consumer & Pro
- Consumer: Wi-Fi (b/g/n)
- Pro: Wi-Fi & 3G/GSM world (so they don't need localized models/carriers)
- Both include a sleek stylus for pen-based input
- Extra: $100 for a docking station
- Pen-based input:
- used by consumers when annotating eBooks
- used by knowledge workers for marking up documents
- used by artists in Photoshop etc
- Ability to use the Tablet as a multi-touch & pen input device for any existing mac
- uses a much updated version of The Newton's handwriting input mechanism, which Apple already owns patents for
- Ability to run apps on your existing mac as if they were running on the tablet
Example: If you have Photoshop & iTunes on your main Mac, in iTunes you'll be able to drag their icons onto your tablet. Those icons will be added to your tablet, and automatically connected back to your mac, over the network.
When you launch Photoshop on the tablet, it will look & feel like it's running locally, but it'll really just be displaying the interface locally. All processing will be done back on your (powerful) Mac. Running iTunes would work the same way. The advantage is that you could access your entire music library from anywhere, and it wouldn't require the Tablet to have a fast CPU, lots of RAM, or lots of storage space.
- If this feature doesn't happen, expect to be able to host your music collection in the cloud (thanks to their acquisition of Lala.com), or to be able to connect to it somehow, from anywhere.
- Custom OS based on iPhone OS (optimized for tablet form factor)
- Much faster CPU than the iPhone. Closer to MacMini.
- Newer graphics chip than the iPhone
- 512MB RAM (versus iPhone's 256)
Amazon Kindle vs Apple Tablet
Apple Tablet?
People are worried that Apple's Tablet will be lacking digital content because Amazon has the rights to so much of it, but I think that's misguided.
The Kindle device isn't a profit centre for Amazon -- it exists solely to push digital content, which is where Amazon hopes to turn a profit. Before the Kindle, eReaders were horrible. It pushed the boundaries, and showed that eReaders were viable.
Amazon doesn't care about being the #1 eReader device. They care about selling lots of digital content.
That is why Amazon will gladly allow Apple's Tablet to access & sell its digital content. Because these sales & downloads won't use Apple's infrastructure, they'll be happy to make a typical Associate's commission on each sale.
Apple's device will have access to ALL Kindle content on launch day (through the iTunes AppStore, which will be re-branded MediaStore or iMedia).
Of course, Apple will still make a larger (30%?) chunk of change on any exclusive content they sell (digital magazines, newspapers, etc).
That's what I think, anyway.