DerekMartin.ca web development, spirituality, UFOs & the occult

insanely great

5) No iPhone OS updates, which means no multi-tasking.

Full iWork office suite for just $29.97 USD is amazing

The Tablet has arrived.
It is everything i want in a casual computing device.
It's perfect for web browsing, watching videos, playing games, and reading. It's powerful enough to do your basic word processing & presentation stuff, too. Coupled with the keyboard dock, I believe it is in fact good enough to be most people's ONLY computer. The Tablet is the first computer built for mere mortals.

It is definitely the next computer I want my mom, dad, and sister to own, because my "Tech Support" role will simply evapourate.

Surprises from the event:

1. It is, unfortunately, called the "iPad"
2. I was right about the $499 price, but wrong in that I said that would be a subsidized price.
3. I was very surprised that Steve Jobs did not position this as the only computer most people need, but I still think that's exactly what it is
4. I am dumbfounded that even though there is a mic, there is no front-facing webcam
5. They decided to use the open ePub book format instead of developing their own format. I'm happy I was wrong in this case. Openness is SO important for books.
6. No ability to annotate books. I'm upset about that. I always write in the margins.
7. No iPhone OS updates, which means no multi-tasking.
8. There appears to be a 1 inch border all the way around the screen
9. The onscreen keyboard looks like the physical aluminum keyboards, and Steve typed on it using both hands at once.
10. Full iWork office suite for just $29.97 USD is an amazing deal
11. They totally stole Will Shipley's "Delicious Library" bookcase interface for iBooks

A few insights:

1. A friend complained that because it doesn't run OSX, he won't be able to program on it. Don't be so sure. You can easily use Mozilla Bespin, which is a cloud-based IDE that runs inside Safari.
2. Another said "I don't get why I would want a data plan for this. I don't need one for my laptop. My home wi-fi works just fine." -- The answer is that the iPad can be your ONLY computer, and your ONLY internet connection. You don't need a router/wi-fi if this is your only computer. The unlimited 3G will do just fine.
3. There's something else you won't need soon, if you have an iPad, and that is a phoneline or cellular voice contract. The iPad is a Trojan Horse. It is the first device I know of that has a mic and a 3G connection built right in that does NOT also require you to have a voice plan. Apple is smart. They now have a contract with AT&T and other carriers that lets this sort of device onto their network. My guess is that the iPod Touch is also covered by this contract. I predict that very soon, Skype (or iChat) will be positioned as a replacement for a voice plan. I know some geeks are already doing this, but I think Apple will make it happen in a mainstream kind of way. AT&T won't like it, but they've already signed the contract.

But enough of that.... I made 64 Apple Tablet predictions. How'd I do?

32 of them were correct!
That's 50% !

If the list of predictions had been pre-determined, and I just had to say "yes or no" that 50% would be pure luck. But that's not how it was. I had no direction; an infinite array of possibilities. As such, 50% is amazing.

For the record, here's a record of all my predictions, and how they actually turned out.

Legend:

• R = right
• W = wrong
• H = half marks
• U = unknown/not mentioned

Purpose: 8/8

• R - New paradigm in computing. Redefines what a personal computer is.
• R - Aimed primarily at regular people, not computer people
• R - Designed to be a standalone primary computer
• R - Also useful as a secondary computer
• R - Great for reading books & magazines & websites
• R - Great for watching videos, listening to music, and playing games
• R - It will be the best & only device in its category
• R - It will be more important to Apple than the iPhone, because it will capture an as yet untapped demographic: people who don't necessarily like or use computers

Naming: 0/1

• R - likely called "Canvas", not iTablet/iSlate/iPad/Tablet/Tableau

Software: 8/26

• R - customized version of the iPhone OS
• R - on-screen keyboard, just like the iPhone
• R - Tablet runs full iTunes natively, because the Tablet can be your only computer.
• W - Multi-user support
• W - Free MobileMe Lite accounts to host your user profile & basic data (bookmarks)W - coverflow everywhere (finger friendly)W - new file format for eBooks, like iTunes LP & Extras
• W - use tablet as multi-touch or pen-based input for another Mac
• W - run apps on your existing mac as if running on tablet (Unity-like abstraction)
• W - run apps on your existing mac through remote desktop client
• W - stream content from 1 Mac to another (i.e. from Mac to Tablet)
• R - new app: iLibrary for organizing & creating books
• R - new app: iPaint for drawing/painting directly ON the 'canvas'
• W - new system preference to always allow apps to know my location
• W - multi-tasking by tapping into Apple's existing background processes OR by limiting # of apps allowed to run at once, and revealing them through something like Expose, iPhone Safari's browser pages, or desktop Safari's favourite page thumbnails
• W - iTunes goes back to being all about music. Sports new web-based frontend.
• W - a new Store & syncing program is debuted, possibly called iGuide or Apple Media Store or simply "AppStore"
• W - possible social networking features regarding books
• W - Genius for Books
• W - move away from Google Maps to Apple's own solution
• W - move away from Google Search to Bing Search
• W - built-in Friend tracking (like Google Latitude & Loopt)
• W - built-in navigation app with voice directions & controls
• R - no Adobe Flash support
• R - runs existing iPhone apps
• R - SDK available immediately

Publishing: 0.5/2

• H - Deals with all 6 major American publishers
• W - Allow anyone to author & sell their own books

Hardware: 10/18

• R - It will be flat. It won't fold like other Tablet PCs
• R - 2 models, consumer (wifi) & pro (wifi+3g)
• R - 802.11n plus b/g
• R - faster CPU than iPhone (1.2Ghz?)
• R - faster graphics than iPhone (to drive larger display)
• U - more RAM than iPhone (512MB)
• R - 64GB of solid-state storage
• W - OR 32 plus some cloud-based storage (on MobileMe)
• W - either hybrid LCD/eInk OR 24 hours of eBook reading
• W - gorgeous 10.1 inch full colour screen with higher-than-standard DPI
• W - front facing webcam for video chat & multi-user facial recognition
• W - plastic body with multi-touch on the back
• W - available in the same colours as the current iPod Nano
• W - Zero dock connectors, 1 USB port. Again, the Tablet can be your primary computer. You can sync your iPod with your Tablet. You will not sync the Tablet with your Mac.
• R - no tactile/haptic keyboard
• R - no integrated kickstand. too breakable.
• R - no integrated home automation (too fringe)
• R - comes with a very nice travel case, or one is available at launch
• W - possibly launch a new Airport Express A/V

Sales: 2.5/5

• R - much cheaper than the expected $1000
• W - $699-$799 unsubsidized
• H - $499 subsidized (by publishers or Apple itself)
• W - AT&T exclusivity ends. Hello Verizon.
• R - ships in March

Flip-Flops: 3/4

• R - Initially said possible rebranding of MacBook. Later decided no.
• R - Initially said both models include a stylus for optional pen-based input.
• Later decided no (but it will be available as an option).
• H - Initially said docking station available. Later said no. Really unsure.
• H - Initially said keyboard supported. Later said no. Really unsure.