Pwiidictions

I have some predictions about the Wii. Some people have moaned about the bit of lag the wiimote controllers have. Others have whined about the tinny sound of their built-in speakers. Still others begrudge Nintendo for not using built-in rechargeable batteries & dock. I’m betting that this was done intentionally. As you all know, the price of the console is low. At $250 USD, Nintendo is making $92 per console, based on price cost estimates. That price is expected to drop to $200 in Q1 2007… which means the profit per console also drops to $42. How better to keep profits high than to release a “must have” peripheral? I believe Nintendo will release an “Improved Controller” that includes not only rechargeable batteries, a charging dock, a better speaker, and lower latency, but also a built-in microphone. Now, WiiConnect24, Nintendo’s online service for the Wii also launches in Q1 2007. It will let people play games against one another. Yay. Xbox live has been doing that for a while, and so does Sony’s online service… Here’s where Wii is different though. It keeps things very simple with its concept of “channels”. We know there will be a web browser channel launching on December 23rd. I bet we see a new blackberry-like wireless keyboard to accompany it. By making the controllers completely wireless, Nintendo eschewed all sorts of cable-related issues. Anyway, I’m willing to bet on the launch of 2 more channels. You’ll have to pay for each one, but it will be well worth it. Channel 1: DivX Player. You’ll be able to copy any mpeg4, avi, or divx file to an SD card, a disc, or to a shared network folder, and play it on the Wii. Millions of new Wii owners would gladly pay $20 for such a feature. Channel 2: Skype. Wii is online 24/7, and if the controllers had built-in microphones, this would make a LOT of sense. Nintendo could become a huge reseller of SkypeOut overnight, thus subverting a large chunk of the phone system (well, 1.7 million users so far). The Wii has USB ports. Adding a webcam would be easy. The sale of a Wii-based video conferencing system could come at any time. Channels let Nintendo upgrade the Wii whenever they want. They can charge you for each upgrade, because your’e “getting a channel”, not an update/fix. Coupled with the virtual console, Nintendo has loooads of revenue streams built into the Wii. We’re just beginning to see their genius. A Note on PricingThe low price of the Wii is deceiving. Microsoft started out losing $150 on every xBox 360 sold (sells for $399, costs $550 to make). Sony is losing $241 on every PS3 sold (sells for $599, costs $840 to make). They don’t expect to start earning profit on the consoles in 2008, when the cost of the hardware in them has dropped considerably, and economies of scale kick in. In the meantime, they make their money from licensing fees and overpriced games. Sure, the Wii costs a good $150 less than any other “next gen” console, but it’s also *making* $100 per console from the get-go!! Add to that the fact that everyone who buys a Wii also buys an extra controller for $50, and they’re making even more. Add on some game sales, licensing, Virtual-console revenue, Channel revenue, and perhaps some revenue from selling ‘skype minutes’, and wow.

Comments from my old blog:

testerooo said: This is a test comment that is not spam. It should get through ok, even though it’s not on my special list. If it does, Akismet is working well :) at 2006-12-17 01:32:41

derek said: Finally. I’ve got an actual professional community-driven anti-spam solution working to prevent spam comments from getting through. Hopefully this will be the end of that nonsense, and all the plugging up of my buddy’s server. Akismet to the rescue.

I manually went through 1400 comments to see how Akismet had flagged them. It did not identify a single valid comment as spam, and it only let 4 spam comments get through. They were for tramadol and ringtones, BUT they contained NO links or urls, and they were very short. Interesting, eh?

So, the way it works now is this: If you have posted a real comment on this site before, and I approved it, you are on a whitelist, and your stuff gets through automatically. If you have never commented and been approved before, Akismet gets to judge whether you’re spam or not. If it says you’re not, your comment goes into a queue awaiting my manual approval. If Akismet thinks you are spam, your comment is deleted immediately, and you are told that it looked like spam. Voila. at 2006-12-17 03:52:33

u.c. said: As usual even having a wii in the UK is expensive……………list price if you could get one £249 and as none are available ebay pirates selling at between £350 and £450 (about CND 1000).Cant even have a go of one in a shop as even the demo models have gone.Next lot due to arrive already oversubscribed so I guess anyone wanting a wii soon will have to tie a knot in it. at 2006-12-17 08:12:25

u.c. said: mmmmmm thats interesting,thought the above hadnt posted as received an onscreen message saying posted as spam, tidy it up,you suck? at 2006-12-17 08:16:48

u.c. said: ………………..ditto…………………… at 2006-12-17 08:18:36

mom said: so………….did Akismet put me in the spam box, or did you sensor me out? just curious…… hope you white list me. hugs at 2006-12-17 12:55:21

derek said: Sweet! I’m done going through all the comments! Took forever. Now if you see a comment with a read name, that means it got through the filter, but is awaiting manual approval by me. I’ll get rid of it. Also, see above the comments where it says how many comments are pending? You can click that link to see all the “pending comments” on my whole site. If yours is in there, or if it has a red title, I’ll approve it soon. Rock on.

Mom & U.C. — Did it really block your posts? I see your comments there. Did it work OK? at 2006-12-17 16:54:30

derek said: In case you were wondering, my post about Fahrenheit 9/11 and Knoppix from back in Jun 2004 is my single most spammed blog entry, with 42158 pieces, to be exact. at 2006-12-17 19:13:01

derek said: Some stats, in case you were wondering… 0 Comments Awaiting Approval 1277 Approved Comments in Total = 0.6% 2480 SPAM Comments Today = 1.2% 11949 SPAM Comments This Week = 5.6% 48852 SPAM Comments This Month = 23% 210748 SPAM Comments in Total = 99.4% at 2006-12-18 00:50:13

u.c. said: testing at 2006-12-18 08:19:24

u.c. said: that got through just fine without akismet flagging a mesage after hitting submit comment at 2006-12-18 08:24:27

Kevin said: nice to see that the spam is gone :) had to disable catch-all on my e-mail, as the freaken spammers decided to try to use similar e-mail addresses to distribute spam. Darn them at 2006-12-18 12:48:17

BigDaddy71 said: Ah, Abru and Teresa still managed to bee the akismet filter. You need to add some functionality to identify stuff that got through as spam.

I like Consolewatch too…gonna keep an eye on that in the New Year for when I’m ready to get my Wii at 2006-12-19 03:36:02