DerekMartin.ca

Just my 2 cents:

It will a strong Media computer. Basic an iPod Touch PLUS. A plus because of the bigger screen but I also believe it will serve as an eReader for not only books but also magazines which can be bought through iTunes.

It will be able run iPod Touch apps. Question will be if it will be able to run Mac apps.

Interface will be very interesting. Have a hard time believe there will be stylus. It just doesn’t seem something that Apple would do. But the interface will be interesting. All I hope that it is not going to be a huge iPhone.

Obviously Wifi but I am not convinced that 3G is also a part. The question is how a consumer is going to pay for that. Maybe tethering through the iPhone will be possible.

All in all I am very curious about the device but I can’t imagine buying it. at 2010-01-14 01:16:14

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: I should have specified that IF it has a stylus, I think it will be 100% optional. It could be used to annotate books, documents, and do art… but if you don’t want to do those things, you don’t need the stylus. Fingers will do fine. You could even annotate using the virtual keyboard / finger painting if you wanted. at 2010-01-14 02:11:50

Ian said: Definitely some of those I haven’t heard before.. Here are my thoughts:

-name Macbook -> Very unlikely. Macs are for mouse and keyboard. The name will die with that. iPod’s and iPhones are a far bigger deal than mac’s. Mac’s are last century. The iPhone was a total rethink of the experience, abstracting away most of a regular computer. The tablet will continue with that with a new name.

-coverflow. It works well for some stuff. I’m guessing it’ll be there.

-display - I think the battery life won’t be that high at all. They will be satisfied with charging once a day, with a 7-9 hour battery life, and no e-ink. Maybe if the engineering is there for e-ink, but I haven’t heard anything that allows a computer to be a computer and even partially use e-ink. The touchscreen on that Plastic Logic device is completely unusable for anything. And there is no way they’ll use two displays. Too costly to make and complex to use.

DPI - at least 720p, not sure how much more. Definitely higher than a laptop. I’ll go with at least as high as the dpi as the iPhone. Not sure how many pixels that’ll be. A lot more.

camera - I’ll go with a yes. It could be in the higher end model?

iTunes for books - Hope so. Sounds good. I think it would help.

2 models, definitely agreed. And most people will want the more expensive one as is always the case:)

wifi and 3G - probably

stylus - The input mechanism is the giant unknown right now. I won’t make predictions on this one:)

docking station - I’d be very surprised. It should be truly portable.

annotating ebooks - this is killer functionality. I’d love it.

ability to control mac apps. My first instinct was “no way”, and that it is too complicated because the mac has too much baggage. But now that I think about the remote app on the iPhone, that’s pretty much how it works. I sure hope that you won’t have to sync with a cord to a computer to listen to music. This device should be stand-alone. No PC necessary. I hope.

custom OS - definitely faster CPU - for sure. graphics chip - sounds good RAM - yes.

I like these predictions altogether. at 2010-01-13 19:26:06

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: Forgot to mention, because I think the Tablet will be shared by members of the family (unlike the iPhone/iTouch), the Tablet will support multiple user accounts, like OSX (unlike iPhone OS). at 2010-01-15 17:35:46

u.c. said: I hope your predictions are right Madam Zara.Cant wait for 26th. at 2010-01-13 18:50:58

(Apple Tablet Event Invitation Insights « DerekMartin.ca)[http://www.derekmartin.ca/2010/01/18/apple-tablet-event-invitation-insights/] said: […] my formal list of Apple Tablet predictions. Tagged as: apple, tablet No Comments Comments (0) Trackbacks (0) ( subscribe to comments on […] at 2010-01-18 22:03:33

• The invites are spray-paint themed.
• The caption reads “come see our latest creation”.
• The event is scheduled to be 2 hours long.

Insights:- “Our latest creation” seems to focus on a single product. - Steve Jobs can cover a LOT of ground in 2 hours, so expect something huge - a whole new Operating System or interaction paradigm. - The colour goes “outside the lines” of the border, like “thinking outside the box”. Makes me think new paradigm. - The colours of paint are the same as the iPod Nano. Will the tablet be available in these same colours? This would appeal to artsy people, and those who wish the Kindle were a bit more stylish. - Spray paint at all suggests art / creativity, as does the word “creation” on the invite. - Spray paint could indicate the presence of a stylus (i.e. not finger painting) - Drips of paint could indicate that the tablet can be used in a vertical or tilted orientation, like a canvas - Drips of paint could indicate a kind of gravity/physics/liquid model, like paint dripping on a canvas sitting on a tilted easel - Use of paint could indicate a new drawing/painting app. Apple has long catered to “creative people”, but has so far ignored that particular demographic. I think they avoided it because to get it right, you need to be able to work directly ON the canvas, not on something that represents the canvas (i.e. mousepad/trackpad). This would be “pen-on-screen” technology, similar to what’s used in the Wacom Cintiq. The Apple Tablet will be Cintiq for Everyone, plus a web tablet, plus document editor, plus eBook. As I mentioned in my other tablet predictions post, I think use of a stylus will be optional, but particularly useful for art and annotation. - The paint app could debut as part of a new version of iLife, or as a free (killer) app that comes with every Tablet - This device/app will be to artists as Final Cut Pro is to video editors - The new device could be called, the “Apple Canvas”, or “Apple Tableau” (french for Dramatic Scene - bonus for being hoity toity, plus people will call’em Ta-blows if they suck). It’s now obvious that my “MacBook” re-branding idea was totally wrong, since Apple is clearly focusing on Art, with eBook reading as a bonus, not eBooks with Art as a bonus.

In other words, I think this Tablet is going to be just as important to Apple as the iPhone has been. It is going to take them into new markets, and it will be the best (or only) device in the category. I’ll be watching Leo Laporte’s live coverage over at http://live.twit.tv, and I bet he maxes out his bandwidth pretty quickly. See my formal list of Apple Tablet predictions.

Comments from my old blog:

Richard said: In a way I am getting tired of all the predictions. The hype is so high that my gut is telling me it’s going to disappoint a lot of people. We’ll see. Only 1 week till we know what it is. at 2010-01-19 15:07:06

Ian said: I think I’m with you on most of that analysis. It takes a lot of demo to fill two hours. I think the UI for the OS will be largely new. There is just a lot of complexity on a large screen that doesn’t really exist on a small screen that they need to discuss. For example, can you run two apps side by side? Can you layer them? Do we have control of window sizes? How can we quit apps versus switch apps (the difference is barely noticeable on the iPhone)? How do apps communicate between each other? Can you drag between? I think a new paradigm is necessary to deal with this.

-on going outside the lines: I hadn’t thought about that. It’s a simple metaphor, but that might have been what they had in mind. I would agree that there could very well be some kind of paint app like the old MacPaint which ships free.

I’m still not convinced it will be pen based though. Surely it will be possible to buy an extra stylus from somebody. But I just don’t know if they’ll encourage it. They always think prescriptively instead of what people “want”, which I love. Turns out people will start using things stupidly if you give them a choice. at 2010-01-19 00:51:41

u.c. said: You dont happen to know what time Leos live.twit broadcast is going to be in you time do you. If Im awake Id like to hear that….. I hope the Tablet is really really light. Enjoying your posts on this:)) at 2010-01-19 17:15:18

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: I think the event is at 10am PST (1pm EST, 6pm GMT?), and Leo will begin broadcasting from 9am PST (12pm EST, 5pm GMT?) at 2010-01-19 17:59:52

• Currently, all OSX+Mouse products begin with the word “Mac” (mac pro, macbook, mac mini), except for iMac. All OSX+Touch products begin with the prefix “i” (iPhone, iPod, iPod touch), but so does the iMac, which is not touch-enabled. This inconsistency is very un-Apple-like, and should be resolved somehow.
• The last time Apple updated its MacBooks, it switched them from plastic to aluminum. This struck me as odd, because previously, aluminum had been reserved for Pro products. Ever since it was called the iBook, the consumer laptop was plastic. Now I’m wondering if laptops will all be repositioned as Pro products. That is, MacBook will be the pro line, where iBook will be the consumer line. Part of Apple’s positioning of the Tablet may include it being a “computer for casual users”. The iMac is a MacPro without the tower. The iBook is a MacBook without the keyboard. Recall that the “i” used to stand for “internet”, which is exactly what this tablet is optimized for. As you can see, this somewhat resolves the iMac naming issue mentioned above, and provides a name for the tablet.
• iTunes is no longer primarily about Tunes, and adding eBooks to the mix will only further confuse things. They might separate the music player from the store. The player would continue to be iTunes, while the store & syncing app could be called iMedia, iGuide, or Apple Media Store.

2) Publishing- The tablet will herald the mass exodus of “news content” from the web into the Appiverse. The new model is essentially a pay-per-feed model. New York Times & Wall Street Journal will be among the first to adopt it. Check out this MacWorld article for a more in-depth look at this theory. As the article says, “As long as free thrives, the press can’t do its job correctly… . it’s bad for society.” (For what it’s worth, I’m glad this is happening now that I’m no longer a starving student) - May also allow anyone to sell their own books online. Students, scholars, and people who write in their spare time all have something valuable to contribute, but no relationship with an existing publisher. Apple is already a software publisher (AppStore). Now they’re going to become an eBook publisher, and possibly a physical book publisher similar to Lulu.com (see Software below for details on how)

3) Software- The tablet will run a variant of iPhone OS (touch), not OSX+Mouse, primarily because that gives Apple a cut of every app or subscription sold, whereas Apple sees exactly 0% of OSX app sales. - Unlike with the iPhone & iPod Touch, the Tablet will not require you to own another computer that runs iTunes. It will run full-blown iTunes natively. As “TheDude” said: Here’s the scenario at Best Buy: “OK, you’re saying that if I dont own a computer,..and I want to buy this tablet device thingy,…I need to buy another computer to ‘manage it’ ??”. - Free MobileMe accounts provide “account portability”. Necessary to support using anyone’s tablet as if it were your own. Super-handy for home, classroom, & hospital use. - Books will require a new way to organize “apps”. The current model of “1 icon per book or issue” is not scalable. Maybe each Magazine will have its own app, with its own directory of issues? It won’t be folder-based, because part of the elegance of iPhone OS is in how it hides the file system. Maybe there will be a new Library/ZineRack app? - A new iLibrary program will help you organize AND create printed books. It’s iPhoto for written content, and will be optimized for a combination of text & photos, not just photos. Could integrate with Pages. - Reading will become social. Genius for books, recommendations to friends, etc. - If you want or need to run full OSX apps, you’ll be able to use the new BackToMyMac Remote Desktop App, and run them on your MacPro/MacBook via the Tablet. That way they’ll run perfectly (using your MacPro’s RAM & CPU & HDD) and not kill your Tablet’s battery. Very handy for using Photoshop with the tablet’s superb stylus-compatible screen. It’s possible that there’s a magic feature that lets you run remote apps as if they were local, but I dreamt that up (see my 2 previous blog posts: My Apple Tablet Predictions, and Apple Tablet Event Invitation Insights).

4) Hardware- I’m willing to bet there will be ZERO dock connectors, not 1 or 2. Because the tablet will be some people’s only computer, it won’t need to dock with anything. It’ll run full iTunes natively. If it does need to sync with something, it’ll do so over Wi-Fi (similar to the way the Remote App works with the Airport Express). This also means it can stream music directly to an Airport Express. - Because it will serve as some people’s primary computer, and because it won’t have ethernet, I’m willing to bet it will have 802.11N, not just b/g. - Facial recognition via the front-facing webcam. Your face will automatically log you into your MobileMe account / Tablet profile. This is especially important when the Tablet will be used by multiple people (in homes, in classrooms, in hospitals). This is another reason your profile needs to be in a cloud, not on the device. 90 students could share 30 devices, but it’s impossible if you always need to find “the device you had yesterday”, when they all look the same. This technique could easily be used on any Mac that has a webcam. - The position of the webcam will define the top of the device; what is considered “up”. The Apple logo will be located below it, on the reverse side. - If it has an aluminum casing/back, it can’t have a multi-touch back. I think pages will be turned by multi-touch on the back, because this will allow you to flip pages without changing the position of your hands. For this reason, I believe the Tablet will have a plastic case, similar to the iPhone’s.

5) Extras- The Tablet will either come with a travel case, OR a very nice one will be available at launch. Plus, it’ll easily fit in any existing laptop bag/sleeve/manilla envelope. - I like the idea of the Tablet having an integrated kickstand, but that would introduce moving parts that could break, increasing warranty use, so it’s unlikely. - Keyboard support, though desired by many, is unlikely simply because Apple wants people to get used to 100% touch interfaces. A dock is unlikely for the very same reason. - Would love to see them release Airport Express A/V, and it may happen. - Would love to see them release a Wi-Fi enabled X10 home automation gadget/app, but it won’t happen.

6) iPhone OS (3.2 or 4.0) - new system preference to always let certain (or all) apps know your location - Maps adds driving directions with VoiceOver support both for input & audio guidance - Maps switches to Apple’s own mapping solution (they acquired PlaceBase last year), and stop using Google Maps (which now has built-in ads that Apple abhors) - Multi-tasking arrives. I see it going one of two ways, or a combination of both: a) my friend “Interesting Monkey” suggested that Apple will provide the ability to tap into background processes that Apple already uses (e.g. ipod can continue to play music, nike plus can keep timing you, etc). This could result in Skype releasing an app that can ring your phone like a real call. Could also allow apps like Loops/Latitude to tap into your location at any time. b) I think Apple might use something like Expose, but limit the # of apps you’re allowed to run at once. Tap a button or corner of the screen, and see all the apps currently running, the same way you can see iPhone Safari’s “browser pages”… a metaphor which many understand intuitively. Come to think of it, this is also like desktop Safari’s page thumbnails feature.

7) Pricing- Amazon gives away free a 3G cellular data connection with every Kindle. Did you ever wonder how? The publisher pays for the bandwidth required for you to download their book, no matter where you are. It’s possible that Apple could (somehow) subsidize each Tablet in a similar way. A tablet that includes 24 months worth of WIRED, The NewYorkTimes & WallStreetJournal could be provided for as little as $200 up front, plus $20/mth via the AppStore. Or perhaps “Agree to spend over $200 on books published by McGraw Hill in the next 12 months, and get $100 off”. This is kind of like Google’s revenue model. More people using the net = more revenue for Google. By the same token, more people reading on the iTablet = more revenue for publishers. - Alternately, Apple could self-subsidize the tablet based on its vast knowledge about AppStore purchasing habits. Apple knows the average user spends $4.37/mth, they can calculate what amount of subsidy is feasible. Magazine subscriptions will definitely help increase the average monthly spend. So maybe they can afford to sell these tablets at a loss, just to drive App Store use. They do have enough cash on hand nowadays to pull this off. (according to Gigaom, Apple is currently making $76 million per month from the AppStore, before expenses) - Because the AppStore and its apps are so easy to use, the Tablet will appeal to many people who don’t currently use computers (the same way the Kindle does). Apple would be wise to attract these people with low prices, only to make it back through the AppStore within a short time. - In other words, I expect it to cost *much* less than $1000 USD. It will be available, somehow, for $499 or less.

8) Usability- Slate says the Tablet will not be aimed at geeks, nerds & technology people. They say it’s the first “computer for the rest of us”, designed for people who have no interest whatsoever in learning how to use a computer. It’s for people who don’t want to configure, customize, or tweak. It has no directories, no mice, and no keyboards. It will never make you feel dumb. You control it with your fingers, and your voice. Using it is fun. It “just works”. The future isn’t “mobile computing”, it’s “casual computing”. For many people, the Apple Tablet will be their only computer. - Think I’m kidding about how easy it is to use? Watch this 1 year old use his Dad’s iPhone! The Tablet will be very similar, but a bit bigger.

9) One More Thing…- It just occurred to me - what if Apple calls the tablet, simply, a “Mac”. It could put ALL of its existing brand-power behind the Tablet. Makes sense if the tablet is truly meant to be a “computer for the people”. This IS the consumer Mac (not the MacPro). It would be glorious to have everyone start referring to their computer as a Mac instead of a PC. This has the makings of a revolution.

Ok, now for my Prediction Scorecard: (make your own here) - Tablet Announced: Y - Priced $800-1000: N (some saying lower & i say subsidized) - Sized 10-11 inch: Y - Has Cell Connect: Y (pro model only) - Tablet SDK: Y - AppStore Only: Y - Runs iPhone Apps: Y - Cocoa Touch API: Y - New OS: Y (iphone os with some custom tweaks for the tablet) - Book/Paper/ZIne: Y - Plays Video: Y - Plays Music: Y - Has TV content: Y - Has Camera: Y - Has Docking: N (no, unless via Wi-Fi) - Tactile Keybord: N (it’s just asking too much) - Hardware Keybord: N (pushing multi-touch) - Indie Content: Y (huuge - iLibrary does books like iPhoto does) - Flash support: N - Has Textbooks: Y - Ships March 2010: Y - Name Appl Tablet: N - Name iTablet: N - Name iSlate: N - Name iGuide: N - Name iBook: N - Name iPad: N - Name Canvas: Y (most aligned with ‘creation’ on invite) - AT&T Excl Ends: Y - Paint App: Y - Bing Search: Y - Verizon Deal: Y (map for that was bad PR) - T-Mobile deal: N - iTunes Web App: Y (part of the mobileme cloud) - Macs do touch: N (not by display anyway, maybe by kbd/pad thing) - new iLife/iWork: Y (optimized for tablet) - Next iPhone OS: Y (could be 3.2, not 4)

Aspects of the New York Times’ Apple Tablet Bingo that I agree with: - There is a tablet - Screen size is: 10” - It will not fold like a Tablet PC - You can interact via stylus (but it doesn’t come with one) - The price is $699 unsubsidized (but can be lowered with subsidies) - It will not be fully flexible - It is colour, not greyscale - It has a low-power display mode - The wireless carrier is: Wi-Fi plus Verizon or AT&T - Memory: 64 gig SSD (or less, but includes free cloud-based storage / music sideloading) - It will run a modified iPhone OS (3.2 or 4.0) - It will have an on-screen keyboard - It will be a full PC, but will also redefine what it means to be a PC

Remember to come back Thursday to see how I did!

Comments from my old blog:

(Ken Mattlin)[http://www.bakersfieldgrapevine.com] said: Great tidbits and RIGHT ON..I’m an old man and an Apple convert a few years ago but I’ve been in merchandising and retailing forever. This product that Apple is launching will certainly hit a high note for the non-technical among us. A GREAT item which I categorized as a “TABSLATE”. My definition of a tabslate is a handheld computer product larger than an IPHONE but smaller than a Laptop. It’s the perfect product that seems to fulfill the original goal of the pioneers in the home computing field.Going back to the time of the Commodore 64 and the Apple, this concept of the “TABSLATES” brings it ALL together.. at 2010-01-26 15:53:40

u.c. said: Great Post. One thing is for sure if its for sale in N America/Canada for around 699 Bucks or less in rip of UK it will be £699 UK Pounds.However, we r used to that.I have a need for this machine for travelling around with. (also my wife can use it leaving the iMac to me)iPhone a tad too small for me and Laptops are heavy (excl the Air) but this seems to me the way forward. Waiting with baited breath. Its going to be a very interesting announcement.Must check if my local store has something special lined up for the announcement tomorrow as its not far to go. at 2010-01-26 17:02:17

Richard said: I just can’t see the 499 price. It would be 100 dollars over the 64GB Ipod Touch. Although I have no problems with a lower price for the touch (ps will they announce the ipod touch with a camera tomorrow…)

My gut says 799. It has to be under 1000 but it can’t be too close to the touch.

I can see that it can use a stylus but as NYT says, it won’t come with it. I would be shocked if it did.

If it has a carrier, I will be interested how the pricing is going to work. Will you be able to piggyback on the dataplan of the iPhone?

I am curious what the surprises are going to be, if there are any since everybody has been talking about it. at 2010-01-26 16:50:41

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: I don’t think they’ll be making it for less than $500. I think that with subsidies it will be available for less than $500. If you don’t want the subsidy, it’ll cost more. Of course, maybe they’ll do what they did with the iPhone - expensive at launch, and cheaper 2 months later. at 2010-01-26 14:32:11

Tilo said: Good analysis here Derek. However, I think a price point of 499 is a little low. I remember Jobs saying that there was “no way they could make a product for lower than $500 that was not crap”.

The NWT suggested 699 may be more accurate. Well, we’ll see tomorrow! at 2010-01-26 14:22:23

(Tilo)[http://www.tilomitra.com] said: I agree with that. What do you think of the availability? Will they start selling tomorrow? Some reports saying that we won’t be able to get our hands on it until March. at 2010-01-26 15:59:48

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: Sadly, I agree it’s probably March, due to some recent manufacturing issues in China :( at 2010-01-26 16:05:12

Ian said: Personally, I’m “worried” that it will be $1000 (unsubsidized). Their pricing is pretty predictable. They mark things up by around 35%. So, whatever it costs, they usually just mark it up by that much. Are they making enough on app store, books, music, etc.. right now to cover some of that 35%? Nowhere close. Might that change if more and more people buy stuff from the store? Perhaps… but I’d be surprised if they don’t mark it up 30% as usual.

As for the name, I’ll pick the “boring” iSlate.

I think the free MobileMe accounts are sort of a possibility.. but judging from my own experiences with MobileMe, non-nerds just aren’t ready to use it. Some part of it breaks every 3 months. at 2010-01-26 20:46:05

(Henry Kim)[http://www.taylorkim.com] said: Wow, you’ve really thought this out. I’m a little skeptical about it being a game-changer but if it really does launches anywhere near $500, it will be eyebrow singing, brain-searing explosion in the face of mobile computing manufacturers everywhere. One big advantage for Apple is the fact that there are already apps for it. I’m predicting a drawing app like SketchBook Pro will be one of the big sellers, especially if Apple ships a stylus with the tablet. I blogged about it: http://www.taylorkim.com/content/killer-app-apples-tablet at 2010-01-27 03:36:41

(Chris Patterson)[http://blog.phatboyg.com/] said: A good set of predictions. Price will be a wildcard, but $600 is only a bit higher than a Kindle DX, which doesn’t do nearly as much. Again, Apple will expect to make money off partner revenue with this one.

I expect it will “sync” like the TV - You can see it in iTunes, but it won’t have a cable. And I’m guessing with OS4, you won’t need the cable to sync your iPhone anymore either.

Scratch iTunes, it’s going to either be “iMedia”, “iStuff,” or “iAllMyCrapAnywhereInTheWorld” but it will be the media hub that power the tablet and the newly upgraded Apple TV software (and maybe hardware, cause H.264 barely flies on the current model).

No cables, no discs, none of that old technology.

No flash drive, sorry. MobileMe wins here, and iDisk will make it happen. Besides, it’s already a 64GB flash drive in itself. A wireless one at that. :)

Let’s hope for even 1/3 of what you have listed above! at 2010-01-27 05:50:10

Richard said: Congrats on the price estimate ;)

Although the question is if you want that version. at 2010-01-27 19:28:40

The Tablet has arrived.

It is everything i want in a casual computing device.

It’s perfect for web browsing, watching videos, playing games, and reading.

It’s powerful enough to do your basic word processing & presentation stuff, too.

Coupled with the keyboard dock, I believe it is in fact good enough to be most people’s ONLY computer.

This is the next computer I want my mom, dad, and sister to own, because my “Tech Support” role will simply evapourate.

The Tablet is the first computer built for mere mortals.

Surprises from the event:

1) It is, unfortunately, called the “iPad”

2) I am dumbfounded that even though there is a mic, there is no front-facing webcam

3) They decided to use the open ePub book format instead of developing their own format. I’m happy I was wrong in this case. Openness is SO important for books.

4) No ability to annotate books. I’m upset about that.

5) No iPhone OS updates, which means no multi-tasking. :(

6) There appears to be a 1 inch border all the way around the screen

7) The onscreen keyboard looks like the physical aluminum keyboards, and Steve typed on it using both hands at once.

8) Full iWork office suite for just $29.97 USD is amazing

9) They totally stole Will Shipley’s bookcase interface for iBooks

I made a lot of Apple Tablet predictions.

So, how’d I do?

I made 64 predictions, and 32.5 of them were correct!

That’s 50.78% !

If the list of predictions had been pre-determined, and I just had to say “yes or no” that 50.78% would be pure luck. But that’s not how it was. I had no direction; an infinite array of possibilities. As such, 50.78% is amazing.

For the record, here’s a record of all my predictions, and how they actually turned out.

Legend:

R = right

W = wrong

H = half marks

U = unknown/not mentioned

Purpose: 8/8

R - New paradigm in computing. Redefines what a personal computer is.

R - Aimed primarily at regular people, not computer people

R - Designed to be a standalone primary computer

R - Also useful as a secondary computer

R - Great for reading books & magazines & websites

R - Great for watching videos, listening to music, and playing games

R - It will be the best & only device in its category

R - It will be more important to Apple than the iPhone, because it will capture an as yet untapped demographic: people who don’t necessarily like or use computers

Naming: 0/1

R - likely called “Canvas”, not iTablet/iSlate/iPad/Tablet/Tableau

Software: 8/26

R - customized version of the iPhone OS

R - on-screen keyboard, just like the iPhone

R - Tablet runs full iTunes natively, because the Tablet can be your only computer.

W - Multi-user support

W - Free MobileMe Lite accounts to host your user profile & basic data (bookmarks)

W - coverflow everywhere (finger friendly)

W - new file format for eBooks, like iTunes LP & Extras

W - use tablet as multi-touch or pen-based input for another Mac

W - run apps on your existing mac as if running on tablet (Unity-like abstraction)

W - run apps on your existing mac through remote desktop client

W - stream content from 1 Mac to another (i.e. from Mac to Tablet)

R - new app: iLibrary for organizing & creating books

R - new app: iPaint for drawing/painting directly ON the ‘canvas’

W - new system preference to always allow apps to know my location

W - multi-tasking by tapping into Apple’s existing background processes

OR by limiting # of apps allowed to run at once, and revealing them through

something like Expose, iPhone Safari’s browser pages, or desktop Safari’s favourite page thumbnails

W - iTunes goes back to being all about music. Sports new web-based frontend.

W - a new Store & syncing program is debuted, possibly called iGuide or Apple Media Store or simply “AppStore”

W - possible social networking features regarding books

W - Genius for Books

W - move away from Google Maps to Apple’s own solution

W - move away from Google Search to Bing Search

W - built-in Friend tracking (like Google Latitude & Loopt)

W - built-in navigation app with voice directions & controls

R - no Adobe Flash support

R - runs existing iPhone apps

R - SDK available immediately

Publishing: 1/2

H - Deals with all 6 major American publishers

W - Allow anyone to author & sell their own books

Hardware: 10/18

R - It will be flat. It won’t fold like other Tablet PCs

R - 2 models, consumer (wifi) & pro (wifi+3g)

R - 802.11n plus b/g

R - faster CPU than iPhone (1.2Ghz?)

R - faster graphics than iPhone (to drive larger display)

U - more RAM than iPhone (512MB)

R - 64GB of solid-state storage

W - OR 32 plus some cloud-based storage (on MobileMe)

W - either hybrid LCD/eInk OR 24 hours of eBook reading

W - gorgeous 10.1 inch full colour screen with higher-than-standard DPI

W - front facing webcam for video chat & multi-user facial recognition

W - plastic body with multi-touch on the back

W - available in the same colours as the current iPod Nano

W - Zero dock connectors, 1 USB port. Again, the Tablet can be your primary computer. You can sync your iPod with your Tablet. You will not sync the Tablet with your Mac.

R - no tactile/haptic keyboard

R - no integrated kickstand. too breakable.

R - no integrated home automation (too fringe)

R - comes with a very nice travel case, or one is available at launch

W - possibly launch a new Airport Express A/V

Sales: 2.5/5

R - much cheaper than the expected $1000

W - $699-$799 unsubsidized

H - $499 subsidized (by publishers or Apple itself)

W - AT&T exclusivity ends. Hello Verizon.

R - ships in March

Flip-Flops: 3/4

R - Initially said possible rebranding of MacBook. Later decided no.

R - Initially said both models include a stylus for optional pen-based input.

Later decided no (but it will be available as an option).

H - Initially said docking station available. Later said no. Really unsure.

H - Initially said keyboard supported. Later said no. Really unsure.

The Tablet has arrived. It is everything i want in a casual computing device. It’s perfect for web browsing, watching videos, playing games, and reading. It’s powerful enough to do your basic word processing & presentation stuff, too. Coupled with the keyboard dock, I believe it is in fact good enough to be most people’s ONLY computer. The Tablet is the first computer built for mere mortals. It is definitely the next computer I want my mom, dad, and sister to own, because my “Tech Support” role will simply evapourate. Surprises from the event:1. It is, unfortunately, called the “iPad” 2. I was right about the $499 price, but wrong in that I said that would be a subsidized price. 3. I was very surprised that Steve Jobs did not position this as the only computer most people need, but I still think that’s exactly what it is 4. I am dumbfounded that even though there is a mic, there is no front-facing webcam 5. They decided to use the open ePub book format instead of developing their own format. I’m happy I was wrong in this case. Openness is SO important for books. 6. No ability to annotate books. I’m upset about that. I always write in the margins. 7. No iPhone OS updates, which means no multi-tasking. :( 8. There appears to be a 1 inch border all the way around the screen 9. The onscreen keyboard looks like the physical aluminum keyboards, and Steve typed on it using both hands at once. 10. Full iWork office suite for just $29.97 USD is an amazing deal 11. They totally stole Will Shipley’s “Delicious Library” bookcase interface for iBooks

A few insights:1. A friend complained that because it doesn’t run OSX, he won’t be able to program on it. Don’t be so sure. You can easily use Mozilla Bespin, which is a cloud-based IDE that runs inside Safari. 2. Another said “I don’t get why I would want a data plan for this. I don’t need one for my laptop. My home wi-fi works just fine.” — The answer is that the iPad can be your ONLY computer, and your ONLY internet connection. You don’t need a router/wi-fi if this is your only computer. The unlimited 3G will do just fine. 3. There’s something else you won’t need soon, if you have an iPad, and that is a phoneline or cellular voice contract. The iPad is a Trojan Horse. It is the first device I know of that has a mic and a 3G connection built right in that does NOT also require you to have a voice plan. Apple is smart. They now have a contract with AT&T and other carriers that lets this sort of device onto their network. My guess is that the iPod Touch is also covered by this contract. I predict that very soon, Skype (or iChat) will be positioned as a replacement for a voice plan. I know some geeks are already doing this, but I think Apple will make it happen in a mainstream kind of way. AT&T won’t like it, but they’ve already signed the contract.

But enough of that…. I made 64 Apple Tablet predictions. How’d I do? 32 of them were correct! That’s 50% ! If the list of predictions had been pre-determined, and I just had to say “yes or no” that 50% would be pure luck. But that’s not how it was. I had no direction; an infinite array of possibilities. As such, 50% is amazing. For the record, here’s a record of all my predictions, and how they actually turned out. Legend:- R = right - W = wrong - H = half marks - U = unknown/not mentioned

Purpose: 8/8- R - New paradigm in computing. Redefines what a personal computer is. - R - Aimed primarily at regular people, not computer people - R - Designed to be a standalone primary computer - R - Also useful as a secondary computer - R - Great for reading books & magazines & websites - R - Great for watching videos, listening to music, and playing games - R - It will be the best & only device in its category - R - It will be more important to Apple than the iPhone, because it will capture an as yet untapped demographic: people who don’t necessarily like or use computers

Naming: 0/1- R - likely called “Canvas”, not iTablet/iSlate/iPad/Tablet/Tableau

Software: 8/26- R - customized version of the iPhone OS - R - on-screen keyboard, just like the iPhone - R - Tablet runs full iTunes natively, because the Tablet can be your only computer. - W - Multi-user support - W - Free MobileMe Lite accounts to host your user profile & basic data (bookmarks)W - coverflow everywhere (finger friendly)W - new file format for eBooks, like iTunes LP & Extras - W - use tablet as multi-touch or pen-based input for another Mac - W - run apps on your existing mac as if running on tablet (Unity-like abstraction) - W - run apps on your existing mac through remote desktop client - W - stream content from 1 Mac to another (i.e. from Mac to Tablet) - R - new app: iLibrary for organizing & creating books - R - new app: iPaint for drawing/painting directly ON the ‘canvas’ - W - new system preference to always allow apps to know my location - W - multi-tasking by tapping into Apple’s existing background processes OR by limiting # of apps allowed to run at once, and revealing them through something like Expose, iPhone Safari’s browser pages, or desktop Safari’s favourite page thumbnails - W - iTunes goes back to being all about music. Sports new web-based frontend. - W - a new Store & syncing program is debuted, possibly called iGuide or Apple Media Store or simply “AppStore” - W - possible social networking features regarding books - W - Genius for Books - W - move away from Google Maps to Apple’s own solution - W - move away from Google Search to Bing Search - W - built-in Friend tracking (like Google Latitude & Loopt) - W - built-in navigation app with voice directions & controls - R - no Adobe Flash support - R - runs existing iPhone apps - R - SDK available immediately

Publishing: 0.5/2- H - Deals with all 6 major American publishers - W - Allow anyone to author & sell their own books

Hardware: 10/18- R - It will be flat. It won’t fold like other Tablet PCs - R - 2 models, consumer (wifi) & pro (wifi+3g) - R - 802.11n plus b/g - R - faster CPU than iPhone (1.2Ghz?) - R - faster graphics than iPhone (to drive larger display) - U - more RAM than iPhone (512MB) - R - 64GB of solid-state storage - W - OR 32 plus some cloud-based storage (on MobileMe) - W - either hybrid LCD/eInk OR 24 hours of eBook reading - W - gorgeous 10.1 inch full colour screen with higher-than-standard DPI - W - front facing webcam for video chat & multi-user facial recognition - W - plastic body with multi-touch on the back - W - available in the same colours as the current iPod Nano - W - Zero dock connectors, 1 USB port. Again, the Tablet can be your primary computer. You can sync your iPod with your Tablet. You will not sync the Tablet with your Mac. - R - no tactile/haptic keyboard - R - no integrated kickstand. too breakable. - R - no integrated home automation (too fringe) - R - comes with a very nice travel case, or one is available at launch - W - possibly launch a new Airport Express A/V

Sales: 2.5/5- R - much cheaper than the expected $1000 - W - $699-$799 unsubsidized - H - $499 subsidized (by publishers or Apple itself) - W - AT&T exclusivity ends. Hello Verizon. - R - ships in March

Flip-Flops: 3/4- R - Initially said possible rebranding of MacBook. Later decided no. - R - Initially said both models include a stylus for optional pen-based input. - Later decided no (but it will be available as an option). - H - Initially said docking station available. Later said no. Really unsure. - H - Initially said keyboard supported. Later said no. Really unsure.

Comments from my old blog:

Ian said: I also think it’s great. I’m super surprised at how cheap it is. And I agree with your consensus about it being the only computer for someone, and their only internet connection. I think it’s feasible.

In terms of it being one’s only computer.. I think it’s doable, and I think the situation will improve as they move iTunes more into the cloud.. at 2010-01-27 23:30:38

VK said: most of your “R” predictions are general in nature and applicable to almost any new “tablet” gadget (i.e., Dell, HP and others will be release one of their own this year).

>Coupled with the keyboard dock, I believe it is in fact good enough to be most >people’s ONLY computer.

no it’s not. web experience is not complete w/o Flash. no USB = no connectivity to printer, USB drive, etc. no webcam = inability to video conference.

yes, it’s fast, slim, beautiful but… useless as the “only computer”. I will wait for the second generation of the iPad or get one from another manufacturer that will include the aforesaid necessities.

Apple can’t be “excused” by taking so much time, bulding up so much hype/expection, and then releasing a barely useful device. at 2010-01-30 17:55:19

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: My “predictions” seem general now that it has been launched. Yes, “tablets” have been available by Dell, HP, and others for years, but they all sucked ass! They never took off.

I use my iPhone for a LOT of web browsing, and 99% of the time I don’t miss Flash. USB is also not required - you can do a lot via WiFi these days. Many printers support WiFi printing. In an interview, Steve Jobs said the iPad will support printing at launch.

Lack of web cam is not a huge deal (though I agree it is annoying). The amount of people who think video conferencing is cool is very high, but the amount of people who actually DO video conferencing is very low. Not a deal breaker, just a nice to have.

It may be useless as YOUR only computer, but most people don’t require all the features you would use. They’re not “necessities”. Just useful-for-geeks. at 2010-02-01 01:39:29

VK said: Dongles, docks… I would rather sacrifice slightly thickness than having to pay extra for cable attachments.

A number of tiny tablets were showcased at CES. Lots will hit the market. Starting from 5” devices (http://www.slipperybrick.com/2010/01/dell-unveils-mini-5-tablet-prototype/).

I am tempted to get the iPad but won’t be lining up to buy it. at 2010-02-03 03:50:28

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: Regarding Bespin versus Zend, no I would not be happy. I don’t mean to say that Bespin is in any way equivalent to Zend. I’m just using it to point out that coding on an iPad isn’t impossible. In fact, I’m sure it’s only a matter of time until someone releases a $9.99 PHP editor on the AppStore. My guess is that it’ll be by Aptana, who already have their own cloud service.

As for the Apple stuff, I can’t explain myself any better than Stephen Fry explained himself: “I do like and have tried to champion OpenSource software. How can I square that with my love of Apple? I’m complicated. I’m a human being. I also believe in a mixed economy and mixed nuts. I love our National Health Service and the National Theatre, but I also love Fortnum and Mason’s and Hollywood movies.”

I know intuitively that Openness must and will succeed, but at the same time I have an increasingly low tolerance for stuff that isn’t superbly designed. I don’t ever want to have to tweak/configure/fix things. They should just work. Apple’s products, by and large, do just that.

Ubuntu has made great strides in the last few years, but I won’t be going back to a fully open ecosystem until it approaches the simplicity & design I can get from Apple.

Fry’s excellent article – http://www.stephenfry.com/2010/01/28/ipad-about/ at 2010-01-29 02:56:17

Julian said: I find strange that you actually think bespin is a workable alternative to a real development environment. If you were told today that you had to use it instead of Zend would you be happy? I’m also surprised that you don’t seem to have even the tiniest bit of moral outrage toward the fact that apple’s potentially coolest new piece of hardware goes entirely against open computing. It was fine (not great) when it was just a phone but this is a computer. Somehow this idea that it’s more ‘accessible to the masses’ stacks up at greater value for you and taking a giant leap backwards in openness worth it to you? Don’t get me wrong this thing looks like an awesome toy… I’d love to play with it. But the idea that this represents the future of computing for the masses, as Apple and you seem to be suggesting, scares the shit out of me. at 2010-01-29 02:55:09

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: Yes, Apple purchased a chip design company a little while ago, called PA-Semi. They also purchased a mapping company called PlaceBase, which I think will eventually replace Google Maps on the iPhone & iPad. at 2010-01-28 13:12:44

u.c. said: That will do nicely. Nothing on Apple UK website yet so have no idea of availability in UK yet. at 2010-01-28 06:43:20

(Richard)[http://www.braeken.com] said: Insanely great? No, I would not say that. In fact, I was expecting better. It’s a nice device though, don’t get me wrong. It’s a simple computer that is not a computer.

But my mom is not a computer expert at all but I don’t see her replacing her computer with an iPad (yet?). I know she likes some multitasking and she needs a camera (although I am sure that will come in the future).

Of course I wouldn’t mind having one but I don’t really need one. I doesn’t add enough to my daily routine also because I am not an e-book reader.

But it has potential and since it is a apple log on it, it has the potential to be a success. at 2010-01-28 02:21:22

u.c. said: double yet above,my English teacher would shoot me.

Very interesting Apple made its own chip for the iPad,could this be significant for the future. at 2010-01-28 08:10:31

VK said: I am talking about tablets that were announced at CES, which took place before your predictions.

I’ve been using iPhone since the first generation, most of my daily web browsing is done on the deive and one thing I greatly miss is Flash.

This device is for non-geeks; basically, those people who will use it on their couch, browse non-CSS compliant web sites (most likely with Flash) and chat with their relatives/grandchildren (most likely with video). I would have purchased it for my dad who hates his PC, and all he does is exactly that: browse the web and videoconference with me and other folks. It’s a deal breaker, and I am pretty sure it’s a deal breaker for many. One reassuring thing is that some leaked photos of the iPad taken apart show an empty space for camera (http://www.macrumors.com/2010/02/01/ipad-enclosure-has-empty-space-for-camera/)

USB? Essential. If we’re talking about the “only” computer, then who wouldn’t want to take photos with their pocket camera, take the memory card out, stick in a reader and show to friends?

In any case, I will wait for the second generation. Hopefully iPad will face some competition from the planned releases by HP, DELL, et al. It will give Apple a good reason to include some of the obvious features the current generation is lacking.

Let’s see what happens with iPhone this coming summer. Google’s Nexus One is a worthy competitor, so Mr. Jobs can no longer sit back and relax. at 2010-02-03 00:51:58

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: I didn’t pay much attention to CES, so my predictions aren’t from there. The tablets I did see from CES, though, were just small computers running Windows 7. None of them were optimized for the tablet form factor.

I have no idea what you’re talking about when you said “non-CSS compliant”. I’ve never had a problem with Mobile Safari rendering anything… except Flash.

As for the whole USB thing, Apple actually released USB and SD-Card attachments for the iPad. They’re kind of hokey, but at least they let you use USB & SD. See’em here: http://www.aworldofchange.info/2010/01/27/apple-ipads-myriad-optional-dongles-usb-sd-ac-bbq-apple/

It’s only a matter of time until Belkin or someone releases a full-featured dock that includes a USB hub, nice external speakers, keyboard, a top-mounted webcam, and some kind of harddrive that backs up the iPad automatically. It won’t be too expensive, and it’ll be well worth it.

I think I’ll get a first generation iPad (16 gig, wifi only) just to see if I like it. If I do,I’ll sell it as soon as the 2nd generation is announced, and order myself a top-of-the-line iPad 2.0 with max storage, 3G, and whatever else it includes. at 2010-02-03 02:05:18

VK said: P.S. Here’s something new from Google: http://dev.chromium.org/chromium-os/user-experience/form-factors/tablet at 2010-02-03 19:09:22

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: I’m not a fan of dongles either, but I wouldn’t mind if it required a dock to connect to other devices.

I’m pretty “meh” about the CES tablets. Everyone and their brother is releasing Android devices. Some of the hardware is great, and the OS is great, but NOBODY is taking the time and spending the money to make a suite of custom-designed apps for their Android-based devices. Without that, it won’t be a slick, custom experience, optimized for the tablet form-factor. Without that, the iPad will continue to kick their asses for a long time to come.

The original iPod beat every other MP3 player in exactly the same way: it came with iTunes. Apple wins because it builds & optimizes both the hardware and the software, so they work together perfectly.

Yes, there were geeks who insisted their Creative MP3 Player was better, because it had an FM tuner, but eventually they realized how inferior “Creative Jukebox” was to iTunes, and they switched. Today, some people use Songbird to manage their music, but this is 10 years later! It has taken SO long for the rest of their industry to get their shit together and design a single elegant competitor. Insanity. at 2010-02-03 14:32:18

VK said: >Yes, there were geeks who insisted their Creative MP3 Player was better, >because it had an FM tuner, but eventually they realized how inferior “Creative >Jukebox” was to iTunes, and they switched.

I had a Creative MP3 player. Still have it. It has superior sounding qualities, files could be dragged and dropped, FM tuner, etc. I don’t use it not because of shitty “Creative Jukebox” (I never even tried it). I use iPhone because I want all-in-one. The only time I use iTunes is to sync apps and contacts. Music and videos are synced with a third-party application, which is much more flexible and I can simply drag and drop files.

>NOBODY is taking the time and spending the money to make a suite of custom- >designed apps for their Android-based devices.

Google does. Nexus works great, so does Droid. I am pretty sure that tablets that will be released will provide a decent user experience. While Apple definitely rocks at doing that, they compromise on some essential features. I am waiting for a no-compromise tool. Give me 8 hours of playback but include a camera. Charge a bit more but if you’re including 3G, don’t introduce mini-SIM cards and don’t lock it to data only. Etc. It’ll be great to see what the modding community does with this toy. Maybe when in London, ON, I’ll drop by check out your new iPad. at 2010-02-03 17:10:05

(Dennis Jordan)[http://dennisjordan.blogspot.com] said: Great review; I agree that it could easily be your only computer, or at least your only “laptop.” Apple’s biggest error in this was making it too good. With the tablet in the netbook price range and with it a lot sexier than a MacBook, that $1100-$2000+ MacBook price is looking a lot like an Eagles concert — an overpriced dinosaur.

Furthermore, all this crap about the tablet being four iPhones duct-taped together misses the point. The game changed and an iPod Touch is now a quarter-tablet; an iPhone is a $2500 quarter tablet, given the contract.

The tablet is definitely Apple’s fourth “it” device, after the Mac in ‘84, the iMac in 1999 or so and the iPod shortly after. But instead of standing alone or adding value to the rest of the lineup, I think it’s going to cannibalize — or net-bookize — both Apple’s laptop line and its mobile-device line. I mean, unless the tablet’s external keyboard is $1100, there absolutely no reason to buy an Air.

What will be left is the $2000+ pro and the tablet.

(I’d love to see an iPad Nano next Christmas; just a Touch but $400). at 2010-01-28 15:08:36

(Derek)[http://www.derekmartin.ca] said: @DennisJordan

all this crap about the tablet being four iPhones duct-taped together misses the point. The game changed and an iPod Touch is now a quarter-tablet

I agree 100% !

The tablet is definitely Apple’s fourth “it” device, after the Mac in ‘84, the iMac in 1999 or so and the iPod shortly after.

Even though the iPhone is really a mini-iPad, I still think the iPhone was the 4th. Mobile internet was SUPERSHIT before it came out. Have you ever tried to browse a WAP/WEP website? Eeeek! Data was 10x more expensive. Multi-touch didn’t exist. Mobile games were limited to Nintendo DS & PSP.

Apple’s biggest error in this was making it too good… sexier than a MacBook … overpriced dinosaur. Instead of standing alone or adding value to the rest of the lineup, I think it’s going to cannibalize

I thought that, too. Then I saw this quote: “If anyone is going to cannibalize the sale of our products it might as well be us.” - Steve Jobs

He’s got all the angles covered ;)

What will be left is the $2000+ pro and the tablet.

techies will continue to buy their desktops & laptops, because they need access to more hardcore stuff but what’s going to happen is that everyone else will buy ipads i don’t mean “everyone who would otherwise have bought a laptop or desktop” i mean something closer to “everyone who is alive and wants to be online” there are SO MANY people who don’t have computers because computers make them feel stupid or dumb, or because they think they won’t be able to figure them out. apple is going to sell an ipad to 50% of those people then those people will each convince 1 friend to get one, because it’s so easy to use

word of mouth rules

apple stores will help a lot too, because they’re a no-pressure place where people can hold them, and try them out, and ask all sorts of questions. at 2010-01-29 04:18:56